China’s industrial robot market is projected to experience its first decline in five years, with total deliveries in 2024 estimated at 300,000 units, a 5% decrease from 2023. This marks a departure from previous years of consistent growth, according to the Shenzhen Gaogong Industrial Institute (GGII).
The decline is attributed to reduced demand in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the automobile and renewable energy industries, as businesses slow down fixed-asset investments under profitability pressures. GGII’s earlier forecast for 2024 projected sales to reach a record 320,000 units, but tightening demand has led to lower-than-expected figures.
The slowdown has intensified competition among industrial robot manufacturers, with the GGII report describing the current market environment as a “test of survival.” Sluggish demand has triggered price wars within the industry, putting further pressure on manufacturers.
Domestic demand for industrial robots has been slowing over the past few years. After a significant 54% sales surge in 2021 driven by increased adoption of robotics, growth rates dropped to 16% in 2022 and just 4.3% in 2023. This deceleration is attributed to lingering effects of Covid-19 restrictions and global geopolitical uncertainties.
Foreign industrial robot vendors have been hit particularly hard, with some suppliers experiencing quarterly order declines of over 40% compared to last year. Despite these challenges, China remains a global leader in the adoption of industrial robots, having surpassed Germany and Japan.
The Chinese government’s focus on automation has driven the expansion of robotics use in manufacturing. Industrial robots have become essential tools to enhance productivity, reduce labor costs, and boost the global competitiveness of supply chains.
In late 2021, China announced its 14th five-year plan for robotics development, aiming for a 20% annual growth in robotics sales and doubling robot density by 2025. As of 2023, China had 470 robots per 10,000 employees, up from 402 the previous year, placing the country third globally in robot-to-worker ratios, behind South Korea and Singapore, according to the International Federation of Robotics.
While the current market challenges signal a period of adjustment, China’s strategic initiatives underline its commitment to maintaining leadership in robotics and automation.
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