The world’s largest semiconductor firms are grappling with significant uncertainty during earnings season, as changing U.S. tariff policies and expanding export restrictions to China cloud the outlook for global chip demand. Although the reciprocal tariffs initiated under former President Trump took effect in April, their implementation was paused shortly after. The U.S. administration has since exempted some tech products, including smartphones and chips, yet continues investigating semiconductor imports, possibly leading to new duties.
More recently, U.S. authorities added additional Nvidia and AMD semiconductor products to the list of items restricted for export to China. These evolving restrictions are already visibly impacting companies. AMD, for example, reported it expects to lose $1.5 billion in revenue through the end of its fiscal year due to curbs on AI chip exports to China, despite exceeding first-quarter earnings expectations.
Super Micro issued weaker-than-expected guidance, citing uncertainty stemming from tariffs and broader macroeconomic concerns. The company said it won’t provide fiscal year 2026 guidance until it gains clearer visibility. Similarly, Marvell announced it is delaying its planned investor day from June 10 to an unspecified date in 2026, attributing the decision to current economic unpredictability. Shares of both companies declined following their announcements.
Semiconductor stocks have been under pressure all year, driven by a mix of macroeconomic instability, restrictive trade policies, and questions surrounding sustained demand for AI products. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has dropped nearly 12% year-to-date. Globally, the uncertainty extends beyond U.S. firms. Samsung recently warned of high demand volatility due to policy shifts and geopolitical tensions, stating it is increasingly difficult to forecast business impacts from such rapid changes.
Industry analysts have noted that the sector is navigating a complex environment of conflicting demand signals and geopolitical challenges. Some executives argue that curbing access to the Chinese market could be a strategic misstep. Nvidia’s CEO recently emphasized that China could become a $50 billion AI market in a few years, warning that restricting U.S. firms from accessing it would mean lost revenue, taxes, and jobs.
Despite growing Chinese competition in AI, American firms remain confident in their innovation edge. Leaders argue that rather than imposing limits, the U.S. should allow its companies to compete freely and aggressively in the global technology race.
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