Chinese shipping agents and exporters have begun resuming shipments to the United States after a sharp drop caused by recent tariff hikes. The renewed activity follows a month-long pause and comes as trade representatives from both countries prepare for talks in Switzerland. The tariffs, imposed in early April, saw the U.S. levy a 145% duty on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with a 125% tariff on U.S. exports. These measures led to a 60% decline in container sailings from China to the U.S., significantly disrupting trade flows.
Logistics operators and freight forwarders reported a substantial spike in cancellations, with one major carrier experiencing a 30% drop in shipments from China. However, since late April, Chinese freight forwarders have observed growing demand for container space, with bookings starting to pick up for mid-May departures. Exporters supplying major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, have also begun preparing to ship goods again.
The shift in sentiment is driven in part by a softening of rhetoric from both countries. With talks scheduled in Geneva, hopes are rising that a reduction in tariffs could be announced soon. Formerly cautious exporters are now acting, motivated not only by optimism but also by practical necessity. Essential goods such as toys, home furnishings, and electronics have remained in China as retailers in the U.S. awaited clearer trade policies. However, with inventories depleting, these companies can no longer afford delays.
Exporters have warned that if shipments do not resume soon, U.S. store shelves could begin to empty within the next two months. Some manufacturers said that even if tariffs remain unchanged, the cost would ultimately be passed on to American consumers. Logistics experts note that the volume dip was preceded by months of early shipments intended to pre-empt the tariff hikes, but that cycle has now exhausted itself.
Shipping costs are also rising again, with container rates between Shanghai and Los Angeles forecasted to increase by as much as $500 after May 15. While exporters are cautiously resuming operations, experts warn that a quick resolution to the trade conflict remains unlikely. Past experience suggests prolonged negotiations, and while current talks may lead to incremental progress, expectations for a swift agreement may be premature.
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