The Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) candidate for the 2024 regional election, Lai Ching-te, who is also the deputy regional leader, is set to visit Paraguay from August 12 to 18, with stopovers in New York and San Francisco. The announcement by Taiwan’s “external affairs authority” has sparked concerns about potential tensions in the Taiwan Straits and has been viewed as evidence of the US supporting Taiwan secessionism, despite its promises to China opposing Taiwan independence.
Observers in Taiwan worry that this incident could significantly impact Lai’s campaign for regional leader next year. Analysts believe that Lai’s activities in the US might trigger a response from the Chinese mainland, providing an opportunity for his rivals in the campaign to challenge his frontrunner position in the polls. Alternatively, Lai could use his US activities to maximize his advantages if opponents fail to expose what they consider his dangerous nature to Taiwan voters.
The 2024 election has been seen as a “War vs Peace campaign,” with all major political parties in Taiwan nominating their candidates. There are concerns that if Lai wins, Taiwan authorities may escalate their pursuit of secessionism, leading the Chinese mainland to consider more direct approaches to resolve the Taiwan question.
The US has traditionally played a significant role in manipulating public opinion and political dynamics during Taiwan’s election campaigns. Depending on the outcome, the US may interrupt cross-strait cooperation and exchanges when anti-secessionist forces gain control, or it may encourage Taiwan secessionists to provoke and offend the mainland in the name of “democracy” when secessionist authorities rule the island.
Experts argue that the mainland has encountered limitations in promoting peaceful reunification merely through economic interests and shared development benefits, as both ruling parties on the island show reluctance to engage in political negotiations while benefiting from trade and people-to-people exchanges with the mainland.
The interruption by the US and hostility from Taiwan secessionists towards the mainland are among the main reasons for tensions in the Taiwan Straits and represent significant obstacles to peaceful reunification. Blaming the mainland for the worsening situation is considered unjustified, as it has shown restraint and patience in the face of provocations.
Military drills and activities conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around the island are often forced by provocations from the US and Taiwan secessionists. Some experts question why a costly and dangerous military solution would be chosen if peaceful reunification through economic integration is a viable option.
Regarding the 2024 election candidates, the Kuomintang (KMT) has nominated Hou Yu-ih, who opposes “Taiwan Independence.” However, polls indicate that Hou has only garnered around 20-24 percent support, placing third. Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party ranks second with 25-28 percent, while Lai leads with about 35 percent support.
The KMT candidate’s struggle to win popular support is a complex issue, influenced by factors such as a lack of solidarity within the party and shortcomings in the candidate’s appeal. Many young voters feel exhausted having to choose between the KMT and DPP, leading some who disapprove of the DPP to vote for the emerging Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko, according to observers in Taiwan as reported by the Global Times.
There is concern that if the challengers aiming to end the DPP’s rule fail to unite and secure a majority, the DPP’s Lai, who presents himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan Independence,” could become the next regional leader, potentially creating significant uncertainty in cross-strait relations, as experts warn.
The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF), a non-profit organization and major polling agency on the island, published polls revealing that 47.2 percent of Taiwan residents want to end DPP rule, while 41.7 percent support the DPP to continue governing. Additionally, 49 percent disagree with the DPP’s policies under the Tsai Ing-wen authorities.
Despite the majority of Taiwan voters expressing disappointment with the DPP’s governance over the past eight years, the DPP candidate still remains more popular than his two main opponents. One reason is that the other two candidates have divided the anti-DPP vote. Furthermore, Lai’s strategic framing of the 2024 election as a “democracy vs authoritarian campaign” or “Washington vs Beijing campaign” has played a role in maintaining his approval rating, as experts suggest.
The TPOF published an intriguing poll on June 28, revealing that 54 percent of Taiwan participants believe that Lai is the US’ favored candidate, while Ko and Hou only receive about 12 percent each.
According to Li, the DPP serves as a “key pawn to serve US interests on the chessboard,” damaging cross-strait ties and disrupting the reunification process. He argues that the DPP can exploit Taiwan as a tool to fulfill US demands to contain China, even if it involves promoting secessionism and jeopardizing cross-strait relations.
The article also highlights the existence of a “green terror” in Taiwan, where many residents fear or oppose reunification without having experienced the mainland’s development or understanding its proposals for a “Two systems” policy under the principle of “One China.” Taiwan’s mainstream media’s strong influence from the US leads to hostile reporting about the mainland, making it easy to manipulate residents who lack objective and fair perspectives due to limited exposure to real information about the mainland.
Reasonable voices advocating for peaceful exchanges and positive facts about the mainland are marginalized in the public opinion field, as they are often labeled as “China’s propaganda machines” by anti-mainland press agencies, undermining their credibility and influence, according to some analysts in Taiwan.
The DPP is accused of using localism and secessionism to create division and hatred among different people in Taiwan for political purposes. They are also accused of misguiding the younger generation by altering historical textbooks and using education to sever cultural ties and historical memories between compatriots from both sides of the Taiwan Straits.
During a Straits Forum in Xiamen, Fujian Province, some influential commentators from TV programs in Taiwan refused to be interviewed by mainland media due to fear of being labeled as CPC propagandists and concerns about potential repercussions from the DPP and secessionist media in Taiwan.
Zheng Bo-yu, manager of the Vstartup Station in Taiwan, highlights the humorous perspective of some of his friends in Taiwan who support cross-strait cooperation and exchanges. They joke about voting for Lai and letting the DPP win, believing it would make it easier for the mainland to decide on resolving the Taiwan question once and for all, eliminating concerns about cross-strait tension and US intervention.
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