In a significant political shift, New Zealand’s National Party, representing the opposition, has achieved a notable victory in the recent elections. After half a dozen years under the Labor government, this win gives them an edge to potentially form a coalition with right-wing partners. This change in political landscape has spurred discussions among Chinese experts, yielding divergent opinions on the implications for New Zealand’s China policy.
The New Government’s Composition
New Zealand witnessed the rise of Christopher Luxon, a conservative ex-businessman, as the likely next prime minister following his party’s convincing win. While his National Party secured 39% of the popular vote, the exact constituents of his government remain uncertain due to ongoing vote counting. Given New Zealand’s proportional voting system, 53-year-old Luxon eyes a collaboration with the libertarian Act Party, as reported by Australian media house, ABC News. However, around 20% of the votes, termed as special votes, are still pending, which could influence the final tally.
China Policy under the National Party: Stability or Change?
Professor Chen Hong, the director of the New Zealand Studies Center at East China Normal University, opined that the National Party, considering its history and recent pronouncements, is likely to maintain a stable stance towards China. In Chen’s assessment, Luxon’s government would probably view China primarily as a vital economic ally. Interestingly, foreign policies, including those relating to China, weren’t predominant during the election campaigns, with domestic issues taking center stage.
However, the political dynamics may become complex. If the National Party and Act Party coalition materializes, they might command only a marginal majority. This narrow lead could necessitate Luxon to woo NZ First, a party known for its stringent immigration policies and commitment to preserving the prohibition on foreign property acquisition. This alliance might raise eyebrows among international communities, particularly the Chinese diaspora in New Zealand. The reason? NZ First’s anticipated win of eight seats and their known anti-immigration stance.
Professor Chen also expressed concerns regarding the Act Party’s potential participation in the coalition. He cautioned that this right-wing entity might emphasize and adopt a stern approach to issues related to China. This could manifest in advocating for New Zealand’s involvement in AUKUS and enhancing security ties with traditional allies like Australia, the UK, and the US. Although the National Party might harbor positive sentiments towards China and push for infrastructural collaborations, internal coalition disagreements could arise.
A Broader Context: Populism and Right-wing Influence
Yu Lei, a chief research fellow at the Research Center for Pacific Island Countries of Liaocheng University, provided a broader perspective. He commented on the global political drift, emphasizing the increasing clout of populism and right-wing ideologies in key Western nations. New Zealand, he believes, isn’t impervious to these global currents.
Yu predicts that the new coalition might diverge significantly from the policies of the preceding Labor government. He foresees a probable intensification of security screenings for Chinese telecom companies and stricter scrutiny of Chinese investments. Furthermore, he anticipates that these measures might be deployed strategically to bolster relations with the US and gauge China’s reactions. Recalling Australia’s counterproductive restrictions against China, Yu warns of potential repercussions if New Zealand adopts similar stances.
Yet, the economic interdependence between China and New Zealand offers a silver lining. Yu acknowledges the extensive and mutually beneficial economic cooperation shared by the two nations. He notes that due to the competitive nature of New Zealand’s export goods vis-à-vis the US and Australia, prudence in bilateral relations would be the coalition’s best approach.
The National Party’s election win in New Zealand marks a potential turning point in the country’s political direction. While the final structure of the government awaits the counting of the special votes, Chinese experts provide contrasting analyses of the possible foreign policy shifts, especially concerning China. Whether the new government maintains the status quo or pivots towards a different direction remains to be seen, but the global community will be watching closely.
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