The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark warning for Australia, highlighting the increasing likelihood of conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. European officials and military leaders are urging Australia and other global partners to bolster their defense capabilities and preparedness in light of evolving warfare tactics and geopolitical shifts.
Lessons from the European Frontline
Senior officials in Europe, including those working with NATO and the EU, have conveyed a clear message to Australia: the war in Ukraine has heightened the risk of conflict in the Indo-Pacific. The deployment of Australian E-7 Wedgetail surveillance planes to Poland underscored the importance of international cooperation in addressing global security threats. Lieutenant Colonel Grzegorz Langowski of the Polish Air Force noted that while the cooperation was vital for NATO’s response to Russia, the strategic implications extend to China and Australia.
The Rise of Drone Warfare
Former Lithuanian Prime Minister and EU defense chief Andrius Kubilius highlighted the evolving nature of warfare, particularly the pervasive use of drones. He warned that drone attacks, which can terrorize neighboring countries and disrupt strategic infrastructure, represent a new form of conflict that nations have been slow to recognize. Kubilius stressed the need for countries to not only develop drone technology but also create a comprehensive ecosystem to counter rapidly evolving threats, as adversaries quickly find ways to intercept or jam these systems.
Australia’s Defense Modernization
Australia is actively responding to these emerging threats. The government plans to invest at least $10 billion in drone systems over the next decade and has recently agreed to purchase six advanced Ghost Bat drones with a significant operational range. This proactive approach is seen as crucial for maintaining defense readiness in a volatile region.
Geopolitical Interconnections
Polish military leaders, such as Lt Gen Maciej Klisz, have observed that Russia and China employ similar strategies. The increasing assertiveness of China in the Indo-Pacific, including naval movements near Australia, is a growing concern for regional security. Poland’s potential participation in Australia’s Talisman Sabre military exercise signifies a strengthening defense relationship between the two nations, despite geographical distance.
A Rules-Based International Order
Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has emphasized Australia’s commitment to a region where sovereignty is respected and no single country dominates. This principle aligns with the EU’s efforts to foster strong ties with Indo-Pacific partners and avoid a world divided into spheres of influence. France, through its Indo-Pacific engagement strategy, also advocates for a rules-based order, aiming to manage tensions and prevent conflict, particularly concerning areas like Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. The “increased strategic disinhibition” observed globally since the invasion of Ukraine underscores the need for vigilance and preparedness across all regions.