French media giant TF1 experienced a significant drop in its share price following the release of disappointing financial results and a weak guidance for 2026. The company’s performance has been impacted by a challenging advertising market, leading investors to express concern over future profitability and growth prospects.
TF1 reported a notable decline in its fourth-quarter advertising revenue, which fell by 8.9% to €453 million, contributing to a 12.6% decrease in total media revenue for the period. The company’s consolidated revenue for the full year stood at €2.3 billion, a modest increase of 2.6% year-on-year. However, the outlook for 2026 has cast a shadow over these results.
Analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux have significantly cut their earnings forecasts for TF1, reducing them by approximately one-third. The brokerage cited TF1’s updated outlook, which implies a sharper deterioration in profitability despite stable programming costs and increasing digital usage. Kepler Cheuvreux reduced its margin forecast for 2026 to 7.4% from 9.7% and now expects adjusted EBITA to decline to €164.3 million in 2026 from €252.0 million in 2025.
The advertising market, particularly linear television, is expected to remain under significant pressure in 2026. This trend is attributed to changing consumer habits, an unstable macroeconomic and political climate, and increased competition. TF1 anticipates that the drop in linear advertising will persist in the high-single-digit range in 2026, although the company expects the decline to ease compared to late 2025.
Despite the headwinds in traditional advertising, TF1 is actively pursuing its digital transformation. The TF1+ streaming platform has shown promising growth, with advertising revenue surging by 35.8%. The platform attracted an average of 38 million monthly streamers in 2025, with hours consumed on TF1 content increasing by 12% year-on-year. TF1 also launched TF1 Ad Manager, a self-serve platform aimed at small and medium-sized businesses in the French video ad market.
Furthermore, TF1 has secured a “world premier carriage deal with Netflix,” set to commence mid-year. Studio TF1 also demonstrated strong momentum, posting growth of +9.2%, bolstered by the contribution from Johnson Production Group.
TF1 faces elevated competitive pressures. M6 Métropole Télévision is set to broadcast the FIFA World Cup in 2026, which could impact TF1’s advertising market share. Additionally, Lidl, a major advertiser in France, plans to halt its TV advertising in 2026, further contributing to market uncertainty.