United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has reportedly proposed a significant merger with rival American Airlines to Trump administration officials. This potential consolidation, which would create the world’s largest airline, has immediately raised serious concerns about antitrust issues and the impact on competition within the already concentrated airline industry. Both airlines have declined to comment on the reports.
Scott Kirby, the chief executive of United Airlines, is said to have broached the subject of a merger with American Airlines during a meeting with former President Donald Trump in late February. If realized, this combination would represent the largest consolidation in the airline industry in at least a decade. Currently, United and American are already the two largest carriers globally by available capacity. Together with Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines, they form the “big four,” which collectively dominate approximately 74% of U.S. passenger capacity. A merger would reduce this to the “big three.”
Experts and consumer advocates have voiced strong opposition to the potential merger, citing significant antitrust concerns. Ganesh Sitaraman, director of the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator, described such a deal as an “absolute disaster for the flying public,” predicting fewer choices, higher ticket prices, and increased fees. William McGee, a senior fellow at the American Economic Liberties Project, called the idea “absurd,” noting that a single U.S. carrier controlling nearly 40% of the market would be unprecedented and detrimental to consumers.
Even under a business-friendly administration, the proposed merger would likely face intense regulatory scrutiny. Legal experts suggest that a court would find it extremely difficult to approve a deal of this magnitude and concentration. Any potential merger would likely necessitate significant divestitures of routes where the combined entity would leave passengers with limited or no alternative carriers.
While United and American Airlines have declined to comment, shares of both companies saw an increase following the news. Some industry analysts attributed the stock movements to short covering rather than market belief in the merger’s viability. The Trump administration has previously shown openness to large deals, with former Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy acknowledging potential room for consolidation. However, he also stressed that any such merger would undergo thorough review and might require airlines to shed assets.
This reported proposal comes at a time when the airline industry has seen considerable consolidation. The Biden administration has actively challenged major airline tie-ups, successfully blocking partnerships and acquisitions. United itself has a partnership with JetBlue, though CEO Kirby has expressed satisfaction with their current standalone strategy and the existing partnership, suggesting mergers are complex and challenging undertakings.