In a surprising turn of events, Chinese President Xi Jinping was notably absent from the BRICS Business Forum 2023 held in South Africa. Despite arriving in Johannesburg for the annual BRICS summit, Xi did not appear at Tuesday’s forum as initially scheduled. The prominent forum saw other BRICS leaders from India, Brazil, and South Africa address the gathering.
With no official announcement or rationale provided by Beijing for Xi’s absence, his scheduled remarks, laden with veiled criticisms of the US, were delivered by the Chinese Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao. Emphasizing global collaboration, Xi’s statement urged nations to prevent descending “into the abyss of a new cold war.” He further alluded to a specific country, without directly naming the US, for its attempts to suppress emerging markets and hinder their progress. The statement pointedly remarked, “Whoever is developing fast, becomes its target of containment. Whoever is catching up, becomes its target of obstruction.”
Interestingly, Xi was the only BRICS leader absent from the forum. Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite being physically absent due to international legal concerns related to Ukraine, made sure to participate virtually.
President Xi, however, was present at subsequent events, including a dinner hosted by South African leader Ramaphosa, attended by leaders from India, Brazil, and Russia’s foreign minister.
This unexpected no-show has stirred speculation among experts. Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program remarked on the rarity of such an occurrence, especially considering China’s vested interest in the BRICS association. Similarly, Brian Hart from the Center for Strategic and International Studies highlighted the uncommon nature of Chinese leaders deviating from planned appearances. Hart suggested potential reasons ranging from health issues to significant unforeseen developments that might have demanded Xi’s immediate attention.
Despite the mounting speculations, Chinese authorities have refrained from shedding light on the incident. State news agency Xinhua’s coverage glossed over Xi’s absence, focusing instead on the contents of the speech delivered by Minister Wang. Hua Chunying, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, ambiguously tweeted about Xi’s “address” at the forum’s closing ceremony, even sharing an image of the packed conference room.
During a news briefing on Wednesday, another Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, diverted from direct inquiries about Xi’s absence, choosing instead to summarize the president’s pre-drafted speech. When pressed further, Wang simply expressed confidence in the productive outcome of the BRICS leaders’ meeting.
Beijing’s silence regarding President Xi’s absence at the BRICS Business Forum has generated much speculation among international observers. Experts familiar with Chinese governance and diplomatic procedures suggest that an official explanation from the Chinese government is unlikely to be forthcoming.
Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund points out the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) tendency to remain guarded about internal decisions and movements, particularly those at the upper echelons of power. According to Glaser, the CCP often deems many aspects of its leadership dynamics as state secrets, without feeling the need to clarify or provide context for their actions to the international community.
This observed pattern is not isolated to Xi’s recent absence. Just last month, Beijing’s political landscape underwent a notable shift when Qin Gang, the nation’s foreign minister, was suddenly replaced. What made Qin’s removal even more intriguing was his disappearance from the public eye for weeks leading up to this change, with no official narrative provided by the government.
Wang Yi, Qin’s predecessor, was reinstated in the position, while Qin himself has since remained conspicuously absent from public events or statements. This abrupt reshuffling in China’s foreign affairs leadership has implications beyond domestic politics, affecting international diplomatic engagements.
Brian Hart, affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), underscores how such internal changes in Beijing ripple out to affect global events. The BRICS summit itself was impacted by Qin’s unexpected absence. As part of his responsibilities, Qin was slated to attend preparatory meetings for the summit earlier this summer. However, in light of his sudden disappearance, a deputy was dispatched to fulfill these duties.
Hart further comments on Beijing’s renowned opacity, especially when it concerns internal shifts or contentious issues. The strict control over information flow, often coupled with a lack of transparency, has been a hallmark of the Chinese administration’s approach to governance.
Such unpredictable and unexplained anomalies, like the absence of a significant figure such as President Xi, only reinforce the perception of Beijing’s decision-making processes as enigmatic. To many external observers and analysts, these incidents underscore the challenges in understanding the inner workings of China’s leadership, often referred to as a “black box” due to its inscrutability.
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