Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for OPEC+ oil production, now expecting production increases to begin in December instead of the originally anticipated October start. This adjustment follows OPEC+’s decision to delay planned output hikes for October and November after crude prices hit their lowest levels in nine months. OPEC+ also indicated that it could further pause or reverse any planned hikes if market conditions necessitate.
Despite the adjustment in production timing, Goldman Sachs has maintained its price range for Brent crude oil at $70-85 per barrel. The bank also kept its forecast for December 2025 Brent crude prices at $74 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs, the delayed production increase is expected to be balanced by several factors, including a recovery in Libya’s oil supply and the current softness in China’s demand.
Goldman Sachs noted that while OPEC+ may reduce output in the coming months, the overall impact on prices may be limited by these counterbalancing effects. The bank emphasized potential downside risks to oil demand, particularly stemming from weakness in China’s economy and ongoing trade tensions. These factors, combined with high spare capacity within OPEC+, lead Goldman Sachs to view the risks to its Brent crude price forecast as skewed toward the downside.
On Friday, Brent crude futures were down by $1.63, or 2.24%, settling at $71.06 per barrel, marking their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also experienced a decline, falling by $1.48, or 2.14%, to $67.67 per barrel, reaching their lowest point since June 2023.
The delay in OPEC+ production increases and the uncertainty surrounding global oil demand, particularly from China, have contributed to volatility in oil prices. However, Goldman Sachs’ expectation of stable pricing within the $70-85 range reflects its confidence in the balancing forces of supply and demand in the global oil market.
While the coming months may see continued fluctuations in oil prices, Goldman Sachs’ analysis suggests that the market’s current dynamics, including Libya’s recovering supply and the challenges in China, will help stabilize prices within its forecasted range.
READ MORE: