The recent papal conclave drew significant attention, and many people tried to predict the outcome, even betting on the new pope. Bettors invested more than $40 million across two major prediction platforms—Polymarket and Kalshi—with over $30 million placed on Polymarket and more than $10.6 million on Kalshi. Despite the hype, few anticipated Cardinal Robert Prevost, who became Pope Leo XIV, would be elected. Before the conclave, Prevost had less than a 1% chance of becoming pope, according to odds on Kalshi. Of the 33,000 trades placed on the platform, only 416 bets, totaling around $450,000, were placed on him.
While the papal conclave attracted massive attention, the betting activity was still small compared to the $132 million wagered during the most recent U.S. presidential election. The prediction market model works similarly to futures trading, where individuals buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of upcoming events. These platforms have garnered attention and scrutiny, especially in the wake of the 2020 election, as concerns about their potential for manipulation and misinformation have grown. The possibility of large traders influencing public opinion or voter turnout is one of the significant concerns raised by critics of prediction markets.
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to bet on various events, including pop culture occurrences, political outcomes, and other major news events. However, U.S. users are currently restricted from participating in Polymarket due to regulatory issues with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. As with any form of gambling, there are risks involved in prediction markets, and experts recommend that individuals only bet what they can afford to lose. Setting a strict budget for betting is essential to avoid financial trouble, according to financial planners.
For those who choose to participate in prediction markets, financial advisors urge caution. Betting money should be considered part of one’s entertainment budget, and individuals should never bet more than they are willing to lose. This advice is similar to investing principles, where caution and budget management are key to staying financially safe. While some bettors on the papal conclave walk away with substantial payouts, such as one bettor who earned over $52,000, others may face the risks of financial loss.
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