Senior economic officials from the United States and China are set to resume trade negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend a tariff truce by three months and prevent a resurgence of sharply increased tariffs that could disrupt global supply chains. The talks will begin Monday afternoon at Rosenbad, the Swedish prime minister’s office, where both nations’ flags have been raised in anticipation of the discussions.
China faces a looming August 12 deadline to secure a durable agreement with the U.S., following preliminary deals reached in May and June that temporarily halted escalating tit-for-tat tariffs and the interruption of rare earth mineral exports. Failure to reach a deal risks the return of triple-digit U.S. tariffs, effectively imposing a trade embargo on Chinese goods.
These talks follow President Donald Trump’s recent major trade deal with the European Union, which introduced a 15% tariff on most EU imports to the U.S. No breakthrough of similar magnitude is expected in the U.S.-China talks; however, analysts consider a 90-day extension of the current tariff and export control truce highly likely. Such an extension would help avoid further escalation and pave the way for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping summit in late October or early November.
Trump has indicated the U.S. is close to a deal but remains cautious. Meanwhile, the U.S. is poised to implement new tariffs targeting Chinese sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and port cranes within weeks. Recent reports also suggest that the U.S. temporarily paused tech export curbs on China to support ongoing negotiations.
Previous talks in Geneva and London focused on easing retaliatory tariffs and resuming rare earth mineral trade but did not address broader structural economic disputes. These include U.S. concerns over China’s state-led export model flooding global markets with cheap goods and China’s opposition to U.S. export controls aimed at restricting its technological growth.
Experts expect no immediate resolution to these deeper issues but see the extension of the ceasefire as the most probable outcome. The upcoming summit between Trump and Xi is seen as a crucial opportunity for progress, possibly including tariff reductions linked to Chinese commitments to purchase more U.S. goods.
China is expected to push for easing the layered 55% U.S. tariffs on most products and relaxation of high-tech export restrictions, while the U.S. continues to encourage China to shift its economy toward domestic consumption. The negotiations remain complex, with rare earth minerals and technology exports at the heart of ongoing tensions.
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