Taiwan’s vice president, William Lai, a leading contender for the presidency, recently found himself embroiled in heightened tensions following China’s military exercises near Taiwan. These drills were perceived as Beijing’s retaliation for Lai’s visits to the United States earlier this month.
The relationship between Taiwan and China has always been a delicate balancing act. China sees Taiwan as its own, an extension of its territory, despite Taiwan operating as an independent entity for decades. As the elections approach in January, Lai has consistently advocated maintaining the status quo in relations with China. His offers of dialogue with Beijing, however, have been met with open hostility.
In a recent televised statement, Lai expressed his aspiration to foster a friendly relationship with China, stating, “We don’t want to become enemies with China. We can become friends.” Yet, China’s perception of Lai is drastically different.
Lai’s past remarks have created ripples in the cross-strait relationship. His 2017 comments, while serving as Taiwan’s premier, in which he identified as a “worker” for Taiwan’s independence, have made him a contentious figure in the eyes of Beijing. Such sentiments are anathema to China, and they’ve earned him the label of a “separatist” and a “troublemaker.”
The tensions were further exacerbated in 2018 when, addressing the parliament, Lai termed himself a “practical worker for Taiwan independence.” This led to the influential Chinese newspaper, Global Times, demanding the issuance of an international arrest warrant for Lai. The paper cited the 2005 Anti-Secession Law, urging China to prosecute him.
Lai, however, has clarified his stance multiple times. He asserts that his statements only indicate that Taiwan functions as an independent nation. Backing President Tsai Ing-wen, he reinforced that the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) and the People’s Republic of China operate independently and neither is subordinate to the other. Taiwan’s constitution, supported by all primary political factions in the region, affirms that the Republic of China is a sovereign state. The historical backdrop to this stems from the aftermath of the civil war in 1949 when the Republic of China’s government relocated to Taiwan, following their defeat to Mao Zedong’s communist forces.
China’s primary concern revolves around Lai potentially disrupting the status quo. There are apprehensions that he might proclaim the inception of a “Republic of Taiwan,” a step Lai has assured he won’t take.
International relations expert, Wu Xinbo from Shanghai’s Fudan University, shed light on China’s perspective, noting, “I think China hates him, really hates him. If he is elected as Taiwan’s leader, he might push for Taiwan independence, potentially igniting a crisis across the Taiwan Strait.”
Interestingly, while China has sanctioned many Taiwanese officials, they have refrained from targeting Lai directly. This might hint at Beijing’s hope to engage in future dialogues with him. George Yin, from National Taiwan University, suggests, “While they might be wary of William Lai, Beijing can still be pragmatic.”
Given China’s increasingly assertive stance, Yin anticipates that the upcoming Taiwanese presidency will be marked by sporadic tensions and economic pressures, forecasting a rise in these confrontations’ intensity.
Throughout his campaign, Lai has emphasized his commitment to fostering dialogue with China, maintaining peace, and upholding the status quo. He champions the perspective that only the Taiwanese populace should determine the island’s destiny.
In 2020, Lai became vice president, partnering with Tsai in an election where they secured an overwhelming victory. This win was significantly influenced by their stance on China’s assertive actions, especially considering the backdrop of Beijing’s crackdown on protests in Hong Kong. Post their election, China has intensified military exercises around Taiwan, most notably in August and April, seen as a response to Taiwan’s enhanced engagement with the US.
China’s response to Lai’s conciliatory gestures, however, has been dismissive. A telling instance was Lai’s mention of wanting to dine with Chinese President Xi Jinping and advising him to “chill out a little.” This was dismissed by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office as “weird” and “deceitful,” emphasizing Lai’s unchanged “Taiwan independence nature.”
A longstanding demand of China is for Taiwan to acknowledge that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of “one China”. Both Tsai and Lai have resisted this. Meng Chih-cheng, a political analyst from Taiwan’s National Cheng Kung University, observed, “Lai seems even more steadfast in this regard than Tsai Ing-wen.”
As the dynamics between Taiwan and China evolve, William Lai’s political journey, along with Taiwan’s future trajectory, remains a crucial global watchpoint. Given the historical, political, and strategic intricacies involved, both sides face the daunting challenge of maneuvering this intricate relationship toward a harmonious future.
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