Taiwan’s Vice President, William Lai, who is strongly positioned to become the island’s next president, has drawn significant attention following China’s recent military drills near Taiwan. These drills, conducted by Beijing, were in direct retaliation to Lai’s brief visits to the United States.
Even though Lai has consistently communicated his intention to maintain the current relationship with China, Beijing’s reaction to him has been anything but cordial. Lai’s outreach for talks with the Chinese government has been met with evident hostility, despite his declaration, “We don’t want to become enemies with China. We can become friends.”
China’s antipathy towards Lai isn’t unwarranted from its perspective. Lai’s 2017 remarks about being a “worker” for Taiwan’s independence were not received well in Beijing, viewing it as crossing their red line. This sentiment was echoed when, as premier in 2018, he described himself to the parliament as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence.” Such statements resulted in the prominent Chinese newspaper, Global Times, urging China to issue an international arrest warrant for Lai under its 2005 Anti-Secession Law.
To provide context, Lai’s statements centered on the premise that Taiwan is already functioning as an independent country. Throughout his campaign, Lai aligned with the incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen’s stance: the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal title) and the People’s Republic of China operate independently and are not subordinate to one another.
Historically, Taiwan’s political consensus has rested on the Republic of China being a sovereign entity. Following the civil war’s culmination in 1949, the Republic of China’s government relocated to Taiwan, while Mao Zedong’s communists established the People’s Republic in mainland China.
Beijing’s primary concern revolves around Lai’s potential to shift this historical equilibrium. They’re alarmed by the possibility of him declaring a “Republic of Taiwan,” though Lai has publicly dismissed such intentions.
Wu Xinbo, an International Relations Professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University, commented on the situation, stating, “I think China hates him, really hates him. They fear that if Lai becomes Taiwan’s leader, he might promote Taiwan’s independence, potentially igniting a crisis across the Taiwan Strait.”
China’s disdain towards Taiwan isn’t solely directed at Lai. Recent sanctions have been imposed on numerous senior Taiwanese officials, including Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. However, notably, Lai has been spared from these sanctions, hinting that Beijing might still be open to future dialogues.
George Yin, a research fellow at National Taiwan University, interprets the situation as such: “Beijing remains cautious and somewhat mistrusting of Lai. However, their practical side might dominate in the end.” Yin also anticipates heightened tensions between Beijing and the upcoming Taiwanese presidency, speculating a surge in “grey zone conflicts and economic coercion.”
Throughout the election campaign, Lai has painstakingly emphasized his commitment to President Tsai’s vision of dialogue with China while retaining peace and the existing status quo. Alongside, he’s vowed to safeguard Taiwan and reiterated that only Taiwanese citizens have the authority to decide its fate.
Lai’s political ascent was prominent in 2020 when he was chosen as Tsai’s running mate. Their partnership culminated in an overwhelming electoral victory. Their campaign highlighted the looming threat from China, underscored by Beijing’s suppression of the Hong Kong protests.
China’s assertive stance towards Taiwan has only amplified post that election. Demonstrated by its escalating military exercises near Taiwan, particularly the war games initiated in response to Taiwan’s US engagements.
Even Lai’s casual remarks have failed to defuse the tension. An anecdote from a Q&A session at National Taiwan University saw Lai expressing his desire to dine with Chinese President Xi Jinping, hoping to advise him to “chill out a little.” In response, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office condemned his comments as “deceitful” and indicative of Lai’s unchanged pro-Taiwan independence ideology.
The crux of China’s demands hinges on Taiwan’s acknowledgment that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of “one China.” Both President Tsai and Vice President Lai have staunchly declined this.
Meng Chih-cheng, a political science professor at Taiwan’s National Cheng Kung University, observes, “Lai’s stand seems even more unwavering than President Tsai Ing-wen’s.”
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