Nearly half a billion teenagers around the world are expected to be overweight or obese by 2030, according to a comprehensive new review that signals adolescent health is approaching a global tipping point. The Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing warns that some of the leading threats to teenage health have shifted over recent decades, moving away from tobacco and alcohol toward weight-related issues and mental health challenges.
The review predicts that by 2030, approximately 464 million adolescents globally will be overweight or obese—an alarming increase of 143 million since 2015. This dramatic rise is paralleled by a significant decline in adolescent mental health, a trend that has worsened over the past 30 years and was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite these concerns, the commission reports positive trends in some areas. Substance use, specifically tobacco and alcohol, has declined across all global regions. Participation in secondary and higher education has also increased, suggesting improved access to educational opportunities. However, these gains are being offset by surging rates of obesity and mental health disorders, particularly in regions like Africa and Asia, where obesity levels among adolescents have increased up to eight-fold over the past three decades.
The experts behind the commission emphasize that improvements in the health of younger children have not been matched by similar progress for teenagers. They warn that without immediate, targeted action, the gains made in early childhood development could be undermined by worsening adolescent health outcomes. They stress that current global funding is insufficient given the scale of the crisis.
The review also highlights the impact of the digital world, noting that increased online engagement presents both challenges and opportunities for teens. While digital platforms can expose young people to risks, they also offer valuable avenues for education, employment, social interaction, and health promotion. The authors caution against restrictive approaches and instead advocate for a balanced response that leverages the benefits of digital engagement.
In addition, the report underscores how today’s youth are the first generation to live entirely under the effects of climate change, which adds another layer of complexity to their health and future well-being. As global populations age and fertility rates decline, investing in adolescent health is described as essential for long-term prosperity.
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