The European Union is increasingly recalibrating its China policies, driven by evolving geopolitical trends, intensifying US-China competition, and growing transatlantic concerns. This strategic shift marks a move away from decades of engagement towards a more cautious approach of “de-risking” and balancing Beijing’s growing global influence.
The Evolving European Stance on China
For years, the European Union viewed China primarily as an economic partner, believing that engagement would encourage Beijing to adhere to the global rules-based order. However, this assumption has collapsed. The EU now increasingly perceives China as a strategic rival and systemic challenger, promoting a governance model at odds with Western liberal democracy.
This shift has been influenced by several key geopolitical trends:
- US-China Strategic Competition: The intensifying rivalry between the US and China has forced Europe to confront its own role in a world increasingly defined by great-power competition. China’s assertive efforts to reshape the international order clash with EU and US values.
- Uncertainty Over US Engagement: Periods of US political polarization and retrenchment have led to uncertainty in Europe regarding the long-term reliability of US security guarantees and global leadership. This has prompted European leaders to consider greater strategic autonomy.
- Russia’s War on Ukraine: China’s support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has served as a significant wake-up call for Europe, highlighting Beijing’s role as a security threat and a liability. This has underscored Europe’s vulnerabilities and the continued importance of US military assistance.
- Economic and Competitiveness Challenges: China’s state-driven economic model, coupled with unfair business practices, state subsidies, and economic coercion, poses significant challenges to the EU’s economy and technological leadership. The EU is grappling with issues like industrial overcapacity and the weaponization of supply chains.
Navigating Transatlantic Dynamics
While the US identified China as a strategic competitor earlier, the EU’s approach has been more gradual. Despite shared concerns about China’s actions, transatlantic alignment on China policy is complex. Differences in economic dependencies and threat perceptions can lead to divergent strategies. China, meanwhile, appears to be attempting to exploit these transatlantic rifts to its advantage, seeking to foster a divided Europe that is more accommodating to its interests.
The EU is actively working to strengthen its economic security framework. Recognizing that economic tools can be weaponized, Brussels is developing an “economic security doctrine” to equip itself with a comprehensive set of responses to counter such actions by global powers. This initiative aims to enable quicker and more asymmetric reactions to economic vulnerabilities.
Despite these challenges and the complexities of aligning with both Washington and Beijing, Europe is increasingly recognizing the need for a coherent and durable strategy toward China, one that balances economic interests with security concerns and upholds European values.
Sources
- Is Europe waking up to the China challenge? How geopolitics are reshaping EU and transatlantic strategy –
Atlantic Council, Atlantic Council. - Between Washington and Beijing: How Europe fits into US-China strategic competition, Brookings.
- Strategic alignment on China: EU approaches and transatlantic cooperation, Atlantic Council.
- The geopolitical trends shaping the EU’s policies on China, Atlantic Council.