European airports are issuing stark warnings of potential jet fuel shortages within the next three weeks, a crisis exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions to vital shipping routes. The situation threatens widespread flight cancellations and significant economic repercussions as the peak summer travel season approaches.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has alerted EU energy and transport commissioners that the bloc is on the brink of a severe jet fuel shortage. The warning comes as oil supplies are increasingly threatened by geopolitical instability, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy exports. If passage through this strait does not resume significantly and stably within the next three weeks, the industry body predicts a “systemic jet fuel shortage” will become a reality for the EU.
The crisis has already led to a dramatic increase in jet fuel prices. Global prices have more than doubled year-on-year, with Europe experiencing a 138% surge. This price hike has forced some airlines to cut flights, particularly on less popular leisure routes. Smaller airlines in the UK have already cancelled services, and major carriers are considering significant reductions in their flight schedules. For instance, Ryanair is contemplating a 10% cut to its flights.
Smaller airports are particularly vulnerable as they rely heavily on regular fuel deliveries and maintain limited on-site reserves, typically sufficient for only four to five weeks. Rico Luman, a senior economist at ING, noted that these airports might be the first to experience disruptions as fuel reserves dwindle.
Europe has historically sourced over 60% of its jet fuel from Gulf refineries, with more than 40% of this supply being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The current chokehold on this vital trade route has forced European buyers to compete with Asian markets for fuel from alternative sources. Unlike crude oil, jet fuel has fewer alternative export routes, making the disruption particularly acute.
ACI Europe is urging the EU to implement proactive monitoring and action to address the escalating concerns over jet fuel availability. The organization has highlighted a lack of EU-wide assessment and monitoring of jet fuel production and availability, calling for collective purchasing and temporary lifting of import restrictions. The approaching peak summer season, when air travel is crucial for many European economies, intensifies these concerns.