As international climate talks commence, China is stepping into a prominent leadership role, driving the global energy transition. This shift occurs as the United States and the European Union appear to be scaling back their climate commitments, creating a vacuum that China, alongside India and Brazil, is increasingly filling.
A Shifting Global Landscape
The U.N. climate conference in Belém, Brazil, was intended to be a moment for nations to enhance their climate ambitions under the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, the United States, a key architect of the agreement, is reportedly leading efforts to hinder further climate action. Conversely, China, once criticized for its emissions, is now asserting its leadership as a reliable partner and provider of solutions for the global energy transition.
China’s Assertive Stance
Following the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and President Trump’s characterization of climate change as a “con job,” China announced an emissions reduction target. While this target was modest, China responded assertively to criticism from the E.U., highlighting its proactive approach to climate change. This move underscores China’s strategy of setting achievable targets and its growing claim to global climate leadership.
E.U.’s Internal Struggles
The European Union, historically a leader in climate policy, is currently grappling with internal issues. Economic competition with China and the rise of right-wing parties have created resistance to ambitious climate policies. The E.U.’s failure to agree on its own mitigation targets before a recent deadline further illustrates these internal divisions.
China’s Industrial Dominance
China’s leadership claim is bolstered by its significant role in the global energy transition. The country is the world’s largest supplier of low-carbon goods, producing approximately 80% of solar panels and over 70% of electric vehicles. Through subsidies and economies of scale, China has drastically reduced the cost of renewable technologies, making the energy transition more accessible globally. Its industrial capacity in clean technologies now poses a challenge to similar industries in other nations.
Expanding Global Influence
China’s ambitions extend beyond its borders. Having ended its support for overseas coal projects, the nation is now focused on exporting clean technologies and establishing clean energy factories abroad. This strategy, coupled with investments in 54 countries since 2022, positions China as a key player in developing nations’ energy transitions. Meanwhile, the U.S. is reportedly pushing its partners to purchase American oil and gas, a strategy that appears less aligned with global trends favoring renewables.
Emerging Alliances
With the U.S. actively opposing climate progress and the E.U. preoccupied with internal matters, climate diplomacy is increasingly influenced by geopolitical shifts. China has been actively building alliances through organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The BASIC group (Brazil, India, China) is emerging as a potential tripartite alliance to drive U.N. climate diplomacy, representing a significant portion of global emissions and advocating for the priorities of emerging economies.
A New Geopolitical Order
The contest over decarbonization is seen by some as the central arena for a new geopolitical order. China’s confident stance suggests it believes the U.S. is risking marginalization, while China’s leadership and alliances will be pivotal as the world moves towards a low-carbon future. This shift signifies a potential reshaping of global alliances centered on how nations fuel their industrial economies.