As G20 leaders converge in India, a notable absence underscores a growing concern among international watchers. President Xi Jinping, a consistent figure at such summits for over a decade, will not be attending. This absence is emblematic of what many foreign diplomats perceive as a larger shift: China is becoming increasingly insular, limiting its engagement with Western countries and their allies.
Foreign diplomats stationed in China, more than ten of them, have confidentially shared their experiences with Reuters. Their narrative suggests a challenging landscape where gaining access to Chinese officials and procuring information about the world’s second-largest economy has become considerably tougher. They report that this shift has been particularly noticeable in 2023, an observation made even more significant considering that China had relaxed many of the stringent pandemic-related restrictions that previously hampered diplomatic interactions.
When approached for comments, China’s foreign ministry remained silent. This silence, in many ways, echoes the experiences of these diplomats.
Ryan Neelam, an esteemed foreign policy analyst with the Lowy Institute and a former Australian diplomat stationed in Hong Kong, provides a perspective. Under Xi’s administration, there seems to be a discernible change in how Chinese officials approach foreign engagements. “The underlying tone of interaction has shifted,” Neelam remarks. “When officials, whether high-ranking or those lower in the bureaucratic hierarchy, are hesitant to diverge from a set narrative, it constrains genuine interaction.”
Neelam elaborates on the repercussions of this shift. “A diplomatic relationship thrives on informal engagements, on unscripted interactions. When these diminish, opportunities for mutual understanding, finding common ground, or even areas of compromise also reduce.”
The decline in China-West relations isn’t sudden. It has been building up over various issues, from China’s hesitancy to criticize Russia over the Ukraine situation, to disputes regarding sensitive technology, to the ongoing tensions surrounding Taiwan. While China has not specifically elucidated why President Xi, who has been a stalwart at G20 meetings, will skip this one, they have announced that Premier Li Qiang will represent the nation.
Analysts speculate on the reasons. China’s frosty relations with the summit’s host, India, may be a factor. But there’s another perspective. Xi’s international visits have noticeably reduced this year, focusing primarily on countries that are overtly friendly towards Beijing. A case in point: President Xi’s only international travels this year were to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and to attend a major BRICS summit in South Africa.
In contrast, during 2022, despite pandemic-induced restrictions, Xi undertook five international visits. And in the pre-pandemic era of 2019, the number stood at a dozen.
Interestingly, Western leaders have not reciprocated this trend. French President Emmanuel Macron and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken both visited China for discussions with Xi this year. However, several Western diplomats stationed in Beijing report a palpable reduction in their access to Chinese officials or even state-affiliated academicians, whose insights often provide clarity on China’s global stance.
Diplomatic logistics are also increasingly challenging. Organizing meetings, setting protocols, and even securing media access have become intricate tasks. When such meetings do materialize, the narrative remains tightly controlled. Chinese officials are reported to stick rigorously to predetermined scripts. Some diplomats also report a palpable undercurrent of nationalism during interactions, affecting the depth and quality of the discussions.
This diplomatic landscape was hinted at earlier. In July, Reuters documented the experiences of diplomats who felt heightened scrutiny from Chinese authorities. But this isn’t a ubiquitous experience. Diplomats from countries with close ties to China reported no such impediments.
Yun Sun, who heads the China Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, observes an evolving diplomatic tactic. “China appears to be using its engagement, or the lack of it, as a strategy, leveraging it to shape behaviors of nations it currently disagrees with,” she says.
The backdrop to all of this is China’s intensified national security drive, partly aimed at countering foreign espionage. Analysts predict that this inward trend shows no sign of abating soon.
Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, points to an internal dynamic. “Anti-West sentiment seems to be gaining traction within Chinese bureaucratic circles. Regular interactions or close collaborations with Western officials are becoming fraught with perceived risks. In the eyes of some Chinese officials, the rewards of such engagements are diminishing, while potential political and security risks appear to be on the upswing.”
In conclusion, the changing contours of China’s diplomatic engagements with the West and its allies is evident. As the world’s second-largest economy continues its trajectory, its interactions on the global stage will have repercussions not just for China, but for the international community. Understanding these shifts, their reasons, and potential outcomes becomes imperative for diplomats, policymakers, and international observers alike.
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