After a prolonged 15-year exile, Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra touched down at Bangkok’s Don Maueng Airport on a private jet from Singapore around 9 am local time. Thaksin, a divisive figure in Thai politics, has been seen by many as a champion for the rural underprivileged, while simultaneously being regarded as an adversary by the royalist elites.
Why is Thaksin’s Return Significant?
Thaksin’s arrival was not just a casual homecoming. Thai television channels broadcast live as he stepped out of the airport terminal, only to be welcomed by hundreds of jubilant supporters. Soon after, he was escorted by the police to the Supreme Court. This appearance was regarding three convictions made in absentia, which Thaksin has continuously asserted were part of a broader political vendetta against him. The day’s outcome was pivotal: the court mandated that the 74-year-old serve an eight-year jail term for these convictions.
The presence of his youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, who is also an influential figure in the family’s political faction, Pheu Thai, was noted by many. The combination of these events led to increased conjecture about Thaksin’s return. Questions arose. Was his comeback a result of a covert “super-deal” with past political adversaries? Will there be special provisions for his detention, given his age, perhaps in a medical facility for older inmates? And most intriguingly, would he seek a royal pardon from King Maha Vajiralongkorn?
Thaksin’s Past: From Police Officer to Billionaire to Exile
Delving into Thaksin’s past provides some clarity. Before his political career, Thaksin was a police officer who later transformed into a telecom tycoon. His controversial journey began in earnest when he escaped Thailand in 2008, avoiding a two-year incarceration over a controversial land acquisition. This conviction wasn’t isolated—it was an aftermath of the 2006 coup, which had dismantled his government.
This overthrow, executed by a military adamant about retaining power over civilians, was the catalyst for nearly two tumultuous decades of political unrest in Thailand, from which the nation has yet to fully recover.
In the wake of these events, Thaksin made several attempts to return to Thailand. All were in vain, until now. His homecoming is especially significant as Thailand grapples with yet another political conundrum.
Political Shifts: New and Old Factions in Play
An election in May witnessed a shift in the political landscape. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai, which once held a dominant position, was overshadowed by the emerging Move Forward Party. The Thai populace, fatigued by prolonged governance under the “Uncles” – army generals Prayuth Chan-ocha and Prawit Wongsuwon, seemed eager for a fresh political direction.
However, this transition was not seamless. Despite the popular vote leaning towards Move Forward, the unelected Senate stymied their efforts to form a government. Consequently, the actual winners of the election found themselves poised for opposition.
In an unfolding drama, the 750-member bicameral parliament, at the time of Thaksin’s return, was scheduled to cast votes for Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin, a former real estate magnate, to determine his suitability as prime minister. If successful in securing a simple majority, Thavisin would helm a coalition comprising 11 parties, predominantly Pheu Thai. What makes this coalition intriguing is the inclusion of two factions associated with the same generals who have historically sought to undermine Shinawatra’s political influence.
Such collaborations have not been without criticism. Many within the party, especially the passionate “Red Shirt” grassroots supporters, feel betrayed. This base has historically faced severe repercussions, with many laying down their lives in political clashes defending Shinawatra-led factions.
But there are optimists too. Vorawut Silapa-cha, leading the Chart Pattana Party aiming for a coalition with Pheu Thai, expressed positivity about Thaksin’s comeback, viewing it as a harbinger of better times. He differentiated Thaksin’s personal right to return from the broader political agenda, but acknowledged that this was a progressive step.
Maiulee Sawathasai, who helms the red-shirt movement in the historic city of Ayutthaya, conveyed a hopeful sentiment to This Week in Asia. He lamented the nation’s regression during Thaksin’s absence, highlighting economic challenges. Sawathasai expressed confidence in the new government, believing that it would align with previous successful regimes, allowing Thailand to progress.
Conclusion:
Thaksin Shinawatra’s return to Thailand isn’t just the end of his personal exile but potentially a transformative moment in Thai politics. While it remains to be seen how this will shape the nation’s future, the events have undoubtedly revived dormant political energies, setting the stage for an engrossing political drama in the days to come.
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