As AGRA marks its 20th anniversary this year, new research finds the donor-funded initiative once known as the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa has driven a sharp decline in the traditional, climate-resilient crops that feed some of the continent’s driest regions.
The study documents how AGRA’s promotion of commercial seeds, fertilisers and other inputs — concentrated heavily on monocultures such as maize — has expanded land dedicated to that single grain while pushing more nutritious local staples aside. Millet has suffered most. Since AGRA launched in 2006, millet production across participant countries has fallen 27 percent, yields have dropped 17 percent, and land allocated to the crop has shrunk 12 percent.
Over the same period, maize production more than doubled and land planted with it rose 71 percent. Before 2006, millet was as prevalent as maize in these countries.
Maize’s gains came largely from planting more land rather than improved productivity. Yields grew just 40 percent over 18 years, well short of the 100 percent improvement AGRA’s founders promised. Results varied by country: Malawi and Ethiopia saw stronger growth, while Kenya — where AGRA is headquartered — recorded a decline.
Other traditional crops lost ground too. Across 13 participating countries, cassava productivity fell 21 percent and groundnuts 10 percent, as sorghum, cassava and groundnuts drew less land and investment.
Hunger, meanwhile, has continued to climb. In countries where AGRA has had substantial presence, the number of undernourished people rose about 60 percent — roughly the same rate as the rest of the continent — driven by climate change, desertification, conflict and disrupted supply lines.
The shift makes little sense as the climate warms. Millet withstands heat and drought, grows with few external inputs, and provides food where other crops fail; the UN Food and Agriculture Organization celebrated a “Year of Millets” in 2023 for its environmental and social benefits. A diverse farm also spreads risk — when drought or pests strike one crop, another may survive, and rotation keeps soils fertile. The same warnings have accompanied studies of how extreme weather threatens cereal production elsewhere.
AGRA now says it values diverse, nutritious and climate-adapted crops, and its seed programmes include millet, sorghum, cowpea and groundnut. But there is no sign it will abandon monocrops such as maize, with its current strategy still emphasising improved varieties, certified seeds, faster variety turnover and market-oriented seed systems.
Investment needs to support farmers’ rights to save, use, exchange and develop their own seeds, protect crop diversity and indigenous knowledge, and let communities — not seed markets alone — decide which varieties survive.