Nintendo has announced its sales forecast for the upcoming Switch 2 console, expecting to sell 15 million units during the fiscal year ending in March 2026. This forecast is the company’s first since unveiling the successor to its hugely successful Switch, which is set to release in June. Alongside this announcement, Nintendo reported its fiscal fourth-quarter results, showing a revenue of 208.7 billion yen ($1.45 billion), which was lower than the expected 216.16 billion yen. The company’s net profit reached 41.6 billion yen, exceeding estimates of 33.91 billion yen, despite a significant drop in revenue and profits for the quarter.
The fourth-quarter revenue represented a 24.7% decline year-on-year, while profits fell nearly 50%. This downturn was anticipated, as consumers held off purchasing the current Switch model in anticipation of the new release. Nintendo had previously reduced its Switch sales forecast for the year ending March 31 to 11 million units, ultimately selling 10.8 million units, which was slightly below its target and down 31% compared to the previous year.
Market research firm Omdia predicts that Nintendo will sell 14.7 million Switch 2 units in 2025, surpassing the original Switch’s debut year by approximately 10%. The launch of the Switch 2 is expected to benefit from over 100 million active Switch users, which provides a solid foundation for its adoption.
Nintendo also set a target of 1.9 trillion yen in net sales for the fiscal year, a 63% increase year-on-year, but slightly below analysts’ expectations of 2 trillion yen. The company expects net profits to rise by 7.6% to 300 billion yen, which also falls short of estimates. Much of the uncertainty surrounding these forecasts stems from potential U.S. tariffs on consoles manufactured in Vietnam. If tariffs are imposed or increased, Nintendo warned that demand in the U.S. might drop, significantly impacting its profits.
The Switch 2 will retail for $449.99 in the U.S. and feature improved specifications compared to the original, with new titles like “Mario Kart World” and “Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour” available at launch. Nintendo aims to leverage its iconic franchises like Mario and Zelda to drive the new console’s success. The original Switch, launched in 2017, has become Nintendo’s second-best-selling console, with over 150 million units sold. Investors remain optimistic, buoyed by the company’s strong track record and a 30% rise in shares this year.
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