Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel on Monday for the first time since July 30, after a two-month window to negotiate a peace deal in the US-Israel conflict with Iran lapsed without a resolution, and US President Donald Trump extended his warnings to include Oman.
The surge marks a sharp reversal from recent weeks, when tentative diplomacy had eased pressure on energy markets. With the ceasefire window now closed and no breakthrough in sight, traders rushed to price in a renewed risk of supply disruption across the Gulf.
Trump demanded that Tehran “put up the white flag of surrender” in an interview with Fox News, while also directing sharp rhetoric toward Oman, a Gulf state that has historically served as a quiet intermediary between Washington and Tehran. The remarks unsettled a market already sensitive to any sign that the standoff could widen beyond Iran’s borders.
Iran said on Monday it would adopt a more aggressive posture should talks with the United States collapse, hardening its stance as the deadline passed.
The escalation reversed a period of relative calm that had followed earlier tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping channel through which roughly a fifth of global oil passes. In late July, prices had briefly surged past $100 a barrel before retreating as diplomatic efforts gained traction.
Not all analysts expect the rally to hold. Wolfe Research suggested that oil prices could remain broadly steady despite the standoff, arguing that the market has already absorbed much of the geopolitical premium and that physical supply flows have so far been uninterrupted.
The move rippled beyond energy markets. US stock futures fell as fading hopes of a peace deal lifted both oil and bond yields, with investors rotating toward safer assets amid the heightened uncertainty.
Higher crude prices carry particular weight for major importing economies across Asia, where refiners and consumers remain exposed to sustained swings in Gulf supply. Elevated energy costs also complicate central banks’ efforts to manage inflation.
Whether Brent holds above the $90 threshold will depend largely on the next moves from Washington and Tehran. With the negotiating window closed and rhetoric sharpening on all sides, markets are bracing for a volatile period ahead.