As Washington’s negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have stalled, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may look to Beijing for help. But this path may be fraught with difficulties due to Beijing’s lack of leverage over the involved parties, and analysts are not convinced China can pull off a successful mediation.
Netanyahu’s Invitation to China
In late June, Netanyahu announced an invitation to China, just after Chinese President Xi Jinping extended Beijing’s offer to mediate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. While originally planned for July, Netanyahu’s trip has been rescheduled, likely for October, and has been confirmed by China’s ambassador to Israel, Cai Run.
Some interpret Netanyahu’s decision to visit China as a symbolic message to the U.S. Relations between Israel and the U.S. have been tense since Netanyahu’s November election win. These tensions have centered around Israel’s settlements in the West Bank and controversial judicial reforms, while U.S. efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have stagnated.
China’s Involvement in Regional Affairs
The announcement of Netanyahu’s visit to China led to a belated invitation to the White House for later in the year. Still, the possibility of China’s mediation between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains on the table. China has made recent strides in the region, brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Pan Guang, dean of the Centre of Jewish Studies Shanghai (CJSS), believes that Netanyahu’s key mission in China will be to seek help in normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. He noted that China has leverage in the process, particularly with its rising relations with Saudi Arabia and its lack of focus on domestic issues like human rights. However, the Israel-Palestine conflict will remain a significant challenge.
Saudi Arabia’s Relations with China and the U.S.
Saudi Arabia’s ties with China have been growing, and the kingdom has sought partnerships with Beijing to diversify its economy, primarily oil-driven. Meanwhile, relations with Washington have been strained, particularly in the aftermath of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. However, recent visits by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to Riyadh have hinted at a warming relationship.
The U.S. has attempted to integrate Israel into the region by brokering ties with Riyadh. While more Arab countries, including the UAE and Bahrain, have established formal ties with Israel, progress with Saudi Arabia has been elusive.
The Roadblocks to Normalization
Saudi Arabia’s demands for normalizing ties with Israel include security assurances, advanced weapons sales, a U.S. pledge to defend the kingdom if attacked, and support for a civil nuclear program allowing domestic uranium enrichment. These demands were found too costly for Washington to accept.
On the other side, the U.S. has pressed Israel to de-escalate tensions with the Palestinians and halt a judicial overhaul that has sparked mass protests over concerns about undermining democracy. These demands have also become roadblocks to normalizing ties.
According to Pan, China would likely face similar demands from both sides if it attempted mediation. Furthermore, the challenge of halting the building of settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, a demand unlikely to be accepted by Israel, would be a significant barrier.
China’s Desire to Mediate
Tuvia Gering, a researcher with the Diane and Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Centre at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, pointed out that negotiations over Saudi-Israeli ties have so far been arranged only by the White House. Riyadh appears more interested in potential benefits from the U.S., such as F-35 fighter jets.
Gering emphasized that China would love to facilitate Israeli-Saudi normalization since both are close U.S. partners. “China [taking] the credit, that would send a huge signal to everyone,” he said. However, he expressed doubt that China would be able to achieve this, noting, “Israel does not play the China card with the U.S.”
Netanyahu has reassured the U.S. that it remains Israel’s “irreplaceable” ally, despite suggestions in a classified briefing that China’s involvement could “compel” the U.S. to increase regional engagement. Gering believes Netanyahu’s visit to China will be scrutinized in the context of U.S.-China rivalry but insists Israel has no intention of seeing China as a U.S. alternative.
Netanyahu’s Visit to China: A Strategic Move
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement of a planned visit to China captured international attention. The trip, which is likely to take place later this year, symbolizes more than just a routine diplomatic exchange.
Some analysts view Netanyahu’s decision to visit China as a strategic message to the U.S., highlighting tensions over Israeli settlements in the West Bank and controversial judicial reforms. The move comes amid a strained relationship with President Joe Biden and stalled U.S. efforts to broker a normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
China as a Mediator: Opportunities and Challenges
China’s President Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed a willingness to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The invitation to Netanyahu, as well as Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, is part of this broader engagement.
However, China’s role as a mediator faces significant challenges. While Beijing recently brokered a landmark peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, its efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have often been criticized as lacking substance and results.
China’s approach is a “balancing act,” according to Guy Burton, a Middle East specialist. The country has attempted to facilitate dialogues and promote international efforts to find a peaceful solution but has failed to offer concrete plans to address the core issues.
Israeli-Saudi Relations: A Complex Landscape
The potential for China to facilitate Israel’s normalization with Saudi Arabia is another intriguing aspect of Netanyahu’s visit. While China’s relations with Saudi Arabia are on the rise, the dynamics of Israeli-Saudi relations present a complex landscape.
China’s non-interference in domestic affairs such as human rights might make it easier to negotiate with Riyadh. However, Tuvia Gering, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, warns that China’s mediation in Saudi-Israeli ties is far from simple. Riyadh’s interests are closely tied to what it could obtain from the U.S., such as advanced weaponry like F-35 fighter jets.
Israel-Palestine Conflict: A Stalled Peace Process
While China has extended an offer to mediate, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains frozen. Divisions between the two main Palestinian political parties, Fatah and Hamas, and the lack of internal unity in Palestine, further complicate the situation.
Yin Gang, a Middle Eastern affairs specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that without internal cohesion, there is limited space for China to mediate the conflict. Netanyahu might press China to use its influence on Iran, but such a move is unlikely to lead to substantial progress.
5. China’s Global Initiatives and Trade Prospects
China’s meeting with Netanyahu is also seen as a platform to promote its Global Development Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative, offering an alternative to the U.S.-led global order.
Trade will likely be a significant focus of the meeting. China is Israel’s second-biggest trade partner, and a free-trade pact is expected this year. The relationship was further solidified in 2017 when the two countries established an Innovative Comprehensive Partnership.
However, China’s hi-tech investments in Israel have faced challenges, with increased scrutiny from the U.S. leading to tightened investment restrictions on national security grounds.
Conclusion
Netanyahu’s visit to China offers a multifaceted examination of global geopolitics. From the possibilities of mediation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the complex dynamics of Israeli-Saudi relations and China’s global initiatives, the visit is emblematic of a shifting international landscape.
As China continues to assert its presence in the Middle East, the visit represents both an opportunity and a challenge. It provides a platform for China to demonstrate its role as a responsible global player and to re-engage with Israel on trade and cooperation. Simultaneously, it brings to light the limitations and complexities of China’s mediation efforts and its balancing act in a region fraught with deep-seated tensions.
Whether or not breakthroughs occur during Netanyahu’s visit, the episode is a vivid illustration of the intricate dance of diplomacy in a rapidly changing world. Only time will reveal the ultimate impact of this engagement on the broader geopolitical stage.
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