Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani’s upcoming visit to China has stirred speculation about the state of Sino-Italian relations and their cooperation within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Italian official’s remarks prior to his trip have raised questions about the future of this collaboration. Here, we will delve into the nuances of this situation, analyzing the potential impact and the underlying factors at play.
Antonio Tajani’s visit to China, scheduled from Sunday to Tuesday, carries significant implications amidst growing uncertainties surrounding Sino-Italian cooperation within the BRI. Western media has interpreted his recent comments as an indication that Italy may reconsider its commitment to this ambitious Chinese-led initiative.
Tajani, speaking at the European House Ambrosetti economic forum, expressed disappointment with the outcomes of BRI cooperation, stating that it “did not bring the results we expected.” This statement has triggered a flurry of discussions regarding Italy’s stance on the BRI.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s deputy, in an interview with Bloomberg, further muddied the waters by describing the BRI cooperation pact as a decision made in the past. However, he emphasized that any decision regarding the pact would not be a message against China.
Chinese experts are divided on the potential impact of Italy’s reconsideration of the BRI cooperation. Some argue that Italy is navigating a challenging path, caught between increasing pressure from Western allies, especially the United States, and domestic political dynamics that cast the BRI pact in a critical light. Simultaneously, Italy seeks to preserve the benefits of engaging with China through open dialogue channels.
Tajani’s visit to China is seen as a prelude to a potential future visit by Prime Minister Meloni, offering both sides an opportunity to assess the significance of BRI cooperation in Sino-Italian relations and the potential consequences if Italy chooses not to renew the BRI cooperation pact. Despite the uncertainty, many experts believe that any impact on bilateral ties should not be fundamentally detrimental.
Tajani reiterated Italy’s desire to maintain a close working relationship with China while acknowledging the BRI’s mixed results. He cited trade data indicating that Italian exports to China in 2022 amounted to 16.5 billion euros ($17.8 billion), significantly lower than France and Germany, which recorded figures of 23 billion and 107 billion euros, respectively.
Cui Hongjian, the director of the Department of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, noted that the Italian government might be seeking to use its potential withdrawal from the BRI pact to signal a return to mainstream Western politics. This shift in perspective is partly influenced by significant political pressure from Western countries, particularly the United States.
Cui emphasized that addressing the trade deficit requires adhering to market rules, and the competitiveness of Italian products in the Chinese market is not solely a matter for the Chinese government or BRI cooperation. The Italian foreign minister’s statements may be indicative of an effort to explore alternative options, given the potential for adjustments to Italy’s BRI policy in the future.
The rise of Italy’s far-right populist Brothers of Italy party in the government has amplified discussions about the BRI deal’s renewal. Guido Crosetto, Italian defense minister, has voiced reservations about the initial decision to join the BRI, describing it as “improvised and atrocious.”
Meloni revealed that she discussed Italy’s participation in the BRI with U.S. President Joe Biden during her recent visit to the United States. However, she stressed that Washington was not seeking to dictate Italy’s China policy.
While the BRI pact is set to renew automatically in March 2024, Italy’s uncertainty regarding its future role within the initiative remains a delicate balancing act. Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, acknowledged that a potential Italian withdrawal could have some consequences, such as the loss of investment guarantees and opportunities to shape investment rules within the BRI. However, he emphasized that these impacts would not fundamentally disrupt China-Italy relations.
The agreement established between China and Italy under the BRI encompasses various aspects, including investment, infrastructure, technology, and trade. The Chinese ambassador to Italy, Jia Guide, has highlighted the tangible benefits and positive effects that practical cooperation under the BRI has brought to both nations and their people.
While Tajani’s visit suggests goodwill from the Italian government for further collaboration with China, the specter of a potential withdrawal from the BRI pact casts a shadow over certain projects under its purview. The ultimate impact of Italy’s decision on Sino-Italian relations hinges on the ongoing discussions between the two sides.
Tajani’s visit follows a series of high-level visits to China by senior officials from G7 countries, including US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Canada’s Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, and British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly. These visits underscore the evolving dynamics of international relations, with Western countries seeking pragmatic cooperation with China alongside their traditional alignment with the United States.
China and Italy maintain a comprehensive strategic partnership, with their relationship forming an integral part of China-Europe relations. In recent years, both countries have deepened their high-level interactions, expanded practical cooperation, and fostered people-to-people exchanges. This positive momentum has been highlighted by Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
In conclusion, Antonio Tajani’s visit to China and Italy’s contemplation of its role within the Belt and Road Initiative have sparked debates and speculations. While the potential consequences of Italy’s decision remain uncertain, it is evident that both sides are eager to maintain and strengthen their bilateral ties. The future of Sino-Italian cooperation within the BRI will ultimately be shaped by ongoing discussions and the complex dynamics of international politics.
Read More: