Andrei Klepach, the chief economist at Russia’s state development bank VEB, has been dismissed after presenting a report that questioned Moscow’s ability to sustain a prolonged war with Ukraine. His removal was reported on August 18.
Klepach had warned that Russia could not win a drawn-out war of attrition and that the economy was falling behind competitors. His assessment ran counter to official statements portraying the economy as resilient under Western sanctions.
The economist held a senior position at Vnesheconombank (VEB), one of the country’s principal state financial institutions. He was previously a deputy economy minister and has long been among the more candid voices inside Russia’s economic establishment.
His warnings pointed to rising military spending, labour shortages and slowing growth. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected such characterisations, insisting that output has held up despite sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion.
The dismissal came as Russia’s central bank has kept borrowing costs elevated to contain inflation, having held its key interest rate at 21% in a bid to cool price pressures driven partly by wartime spending.
Economists outside Russia have noted a widening gap between government messaging and independent data. Defence and security outlays have consumed a growing share of the federal budget, while civilian sectors face financing constraints.
Klepach’s report reportedly argued that the burden of a lengthy conflict would compound over time. His conclusions, delivered internally, were seen as at odds with the leadership’s public confidence in the economy’s strength.
The removal of a figure of his standing points to limited tolerance for dissenting economic analysis within state institutions. VEB has not issued a detailed public explanation for the change.
Russian officials continue to describe the economy as strong, citing employment levels and adaptation to sanctions. Klepach’s ouster leaves one of the country’s more prominent internal critics without an official platform.