As the ongoing crisis in Ukraine continues to stir global tensions, China’s potential role in fostering peaceful negotiations is coming to the fore, especially in light of the upcoming conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. More than 30 nations, including key developing countries with significant stakes in Russia’s actions, have been invited to the event. But notably absent from the guest list is Russia itself. Despite this, China, with its existing close ties to Moscow, is predicted to act as a counterweight, striving to prevent the conference from becoming a platform that marginalizes Russia.
The Jeddah conference, set to occur over two days, will likely be a venue where Ukraine solicits additional international backing. Among the invitees are countries that have maintained a neutral position in the ongoing conflict, such as India, Brazil, and South Africa. These countries have substantial interactions with Russia and could potentially feel the impact of Russia’s actions.
The absence of an invitation to Russia, which recently withdrew from an agreement to protect Ukrainian grain exports, raises questions about the overall tenor and outcome of the discussions. Russia’s exclusion from a conference aimed at resolving a crisis in which it is a key player has the potential to polarize the discussions and dilute their effectiveness.
It is here that China is expected to step in. The Chinese government has announced it will send Li Hui, its special envoy for Eurasian affairs, to the conference. This decision underscores China’s commitment to the pursuit of a peaceful resolution in Ukraine. Li Hui, who undertook a peace mission to Europe earlier in the year, symbolizes China’s consistent and dedicated push for a peaceful outcome to the crisis.
Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University, notes that China’s involvement may serve to protect the conference from devolving into an “anti-Russian and Western-led multilateral occasion to isolate Russia.” The conference, he suggests, would fail to deliver a useful outcome if it solely aims to endorse Ukraine and isolate Russia.
Instead, China could use its influence to mediate between the parties involved, seek common ground with the other countries attending the conference, and collaborate with Russia to facilitate an early ceasefire. This approach underlines China’s strategic potential to act as a bridge, helping to articulate and negotiate the positions of both sides.
However, Russia has already expressed strong criticism of the conference, with its foreign ministry characterizing it as an attempt to forge an “anti-Russian coalition.” On the other hand, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, argues that the event is an opportunity to explore Kyiv’s 10-point peace formula, which demands a full Russian withdrawal and the return of occupied territories, including Crimea.
Gedaliah Afterman, who leads the Asia policy programme at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Israel’s Reichman University, argues that China’s active participation could enhance its reputation as a global mediator. Successful diplomacy could bolster China’s ties with European heavyweights like France and Germany, and further cement its already robust position in the Middle East and among Global South nations.
China’s strategic positioning becomes even more significant given the escalating tensions with the United States and other Western countries. By actively participating in peace negotiations, China stands to strengthen its global standing as a potential intermediary between warring parties.
Earlier this year, China put forth a 12-point peace proposal to resolve the Ukraine crisis, which called for an immediate ceasefire. Despite the proposal, European countries remain unconvinced of China’s neutrality due to its perceived alignment with Russia. Li’s European tour in May, intended to promote the peace proposal, seemed to have made little headway in changing this perception.
Victor Gao, vice-president of the Beijing-based think tank, the Centre for China and Globalisation, argues that China will use the Jeddah conference as a platform to promote its own peace plan while being open to other proposals. China’s involvement also recognizes and supports Saudi Arabia’s peace initiatives.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the decision to host the conference in Saudi Arabia may be an attempt to win over China. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, who is also slated to attend the conference, had visited Riyadh last week in an effort to mend U.S.-Saudi relations.
In the meantime, Russia’s actions continue to provoke reactions from other nations. Ukraine has reportedly attacked a Russian warship at a Black Sea naval base, causing damage and escalating tensions.
Despite being sandwiched between its ties with Moscow and Beijing and its strained relationship with Washington, Saudi Arabia has managed to maintain cordial relations with all three powers. The U.S. has previously expressed displeasure over Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce oil output, a move that inadvertently benefitted Russia, another major oil exporter, by pushing up oil prices.
Yossi Mann, who heads the Middle East programme at Reichman University, remarks on the unique positioning of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh’s ability to understand U.S. interests and balance them with its strategic partnerships with Russia and China makes it an influential player among these global superpowers. This is especially relevant given the rising tensions between the trio.
Victor Gao further supports this notion, stating that Riyadh’s foreign policy renders it unlikely that the conference would devolve into an anti-Russian event. “Saudi Arabia will not do one thing that will be considered by Russia as anti-Russia, because it is not in its fundamental interests. I don’t think Saudi Arabia will become a puppet of the United States to help it achieve its strategic goals,” he says.
In a final twist, the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, citing foreign ministry sources, has reported that Riyadh has assured Moscow that it will share the outcomes of the conference. Such a move could serve to reassure Russia that it will not be completely sidelined and may help in ensuring a productive outcome to the Jeddah conference.
In conclusion, the Jeddah conference, its invitees, and the glaring absence of Russia all present a unique and delicate diplomatic challenge. The event represents a significant opportunity for the participating countries, especially China, to display their diplomatic finesse and dedication to resolving the Ukraine crisis. It will be interesting to see how the geopolitics unfold and how the decisions made during the conference affect the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the broader international political landscape.
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