American Express reported continued strength in consumer spending during the first quarter of 2025, with a notable contribution from younger generations and its affluent customer base. According to Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec, billed business on AmEx cards increased by 6%, or 7% when adjusted for the leap year. The uptick builds on momentum from late 2024 and has carried into April, even as market volatility increases due to concerns surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and fears of a potential recession.
The company’s performance exceeded first-quarter profit expectations, underscoring the resilience of its core cardholder base. Unlike some competitors that cater to less affluent consumers, such as Synchrony Financial, AmEx appears better positioned to weather economic turbulence, thanks to its wealthier clientele.
The primary drivers of growth were millennial and Gen Z cardholders, who boosted their spending by 14% year-over-year. In contrast, older generations were more conservative, with Gen X increasing their spending by 5% and Baby Boomers by just 1%.
Le Caillec acknowledged the possibility that some of this spending may be the result of customers or small businesses accelerating purchases ahead of expected tariff hikes, particularly to stock up on inventory. However, he pointed to restaurant spending—which increased by 8%—as a sign of durable consumer confidence. Because restaurant dining is purely discretionary and difficult to shift forward in time, this trend indicates continued trust among cardholders in their financial outlook.
The only notable soft spot in AmEx’s performance was in airline transactions, which rose just 3% (4% adjusted for the leap year), a significant drop from the 13% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2024. Nonetheless, the company has chosen to maintain its 2025 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 8% to 10% and earnings between $15 and $15.50 per share.
Despite the positive indicators, American Express included a new disclaimer in its earnings presentation, noting that its forecast remains “subject to the macroeconomic environment.” This caveat reflects lingering uncertainty about the broader economy and potential shifts in consumer behavior should tariffs or inflation continue to rise. Still, the strong showing from younger and wealthier cardholders provides a level of confidence that AmEx can maintain its momentum in the months ahead.
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