In an unprecedented move, Chinese President Xi Jinping will forgo attending the forthcoming Group of 20 (G20) summit in New Delhi. This decision, as confirmed by the Chinese foreign ministry, will see Premier Li Qiang represent China in his stead. This marks a significant departure as Xi has consistently attended these major global events in the past.
This development can be seen in light of China’s evolving diplomatic stance, as this isn’t the first event Xi has chosen to skip recently. Notably, a few weeks ago, he refrained from attending a principal gathering at the Brics summit in South Africa. Despite being slated to deliver a speech, the Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao, had to speak on Xi’s behalf.
Sino-US Relations: A Period of Renewal?
Though Xi’s absence might surprise many, it comes at a time when US-China relations, historically frosty, show glimmers of warming. Several top American diplomats, such as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, climate envoy John Kerry, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, have made trips to China in recent months. The intention? To bridge gaps and re-establish dialogues with Beijing. Premier Li’s travel plans also suggest an active international engagement, with him heading to New Delhi right after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Indonesia.
China, however, remains clear on its objectives for the G20 meeting. The foreign ministry emphasized the need to center discussions around global economic recovery. Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated, “The G20 should fortify partnerships and collaborate in addressing challenges in the global economic and development sectors.” She further added that the summit in New Delhi should aim to build a consensus that radiates confidence to the global community, promoting prosperity and development.
Decoding Xi’s Absence
Wang Yiwei, a renowned professor of international relations at Renmin University, argues that Xi’s non-attendance shouldn’t be misconstrued as China diminishing the importance of the G20. The G20’s core function is to serve as a platform for discussing international economic and financial matters. As Premier Li is at the helm of China’s economic policy, his representation aligns perfectly with the G20’s objectives.
However, the G20’s discussions are not limited to economics alone. They have, over time, incorporated a broader array of topics, some of which veer into political domains. For instance, Japan’s recent intentions to seek the G20’s endorsement for its nuclear water treatment plans, following its decision to release treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean, showcases the summit’s expanded purview. The reaction to this decision was swift, with China banning seafood imports from Japan.
Adding another layer to the discussion, Professor Shi Yinhong from Renmin University stated that the G20, for China, might be of “shrinking value”. Given that many G20 nations now have contentious relationships with China, Beijing might perceive its influence in such forums as being limited.
Zhu Feng, the dean of international studies at Nanjing University, offers another perspective. He posits that Xi’s choice to abstain from the G20 might be less about China’s relationship with the US and more indicative of strained India-China ties. As he notes, India’s ongoing military activities along its border with China, coinciding with the G20 summit, could be exerting pressure on China.
India, China, and the G20 Dynamics
India’s role as the chair of the G20 this year could make Xi’s absence even more significant. With both nations having longstanding territorial disputes, and Beijing boycotting a G20 tourism event in the contested Kashmir region, the geopolitics surrounding this year’s G20 are complex. The Kashmir region, in particular, remains a geopolitical hotspot, with territorial claims from India, China, and Pakistan making it a delicate matter.
Further, Xi’s limited overseas engagements this year shed light on China’s internal and external policy direction. After the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic and an economy recovering slower than anticipated, Xi’s travels have been judicious. His visits, like the one to Russia and the Brics summit in South Africa, underline China’s strategy of intensifying diplomatic ties with developing nations, offering an alternative to the US-centric global order.
Russia’s Stance and the Broader Geopolitical Landscape
Russia, another major player, echoes China’s sentiments. Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed his non-participation in the summit, amidst global anticipation that world leaders will censure Moscow’s recent actions in Ukraine. However, Putin is slated to attend a Belt and Road Initiative forum in China, signifying the deeper ties and shared perspectives between China and Russia.
Conclusion
The G20 summit, always an arena for diplomacy, economics, and geopolitics, is especially fraught this year. With two of the world’s most influential leaders opting out, the dynamics of the event and its outcomes will be keenly observed. These decisions, while on the surface about attendance, speak to the deeper currents of global politics, alignments, and the ever-evolving nature of international relations.
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