As consumer confidence declines, demand for commercial air travel is softening, and even high-net-worth individuals are scaling back. A recent survey conducted by Barclays between April 9 and 15 among 65 business jet broker-dealers and financiers revealed a sharp downturn in interest for private aircraft purchases. Since March, customer interest in buying business jets has dropped by 49%, marking the most substantial decrease recorded by Barclays since the onset of the Covid pandemic.
The Barclays Business Jet Indicator, which tracks market conditions using five metrics including 12-month outlook and pricing, showed declines in every category except inventory levels. The composite score dropped significantly from 52 in March to 40 in April, a 23% decline. This drop signals a cooling market, as a score in the low 40s typically indicates a slowdown.
The index is closely linked to the book-to-bill ratio of aircraft manufacturers—a critical financial measure. A score of 40 suggests that the value of new orders is about 10% below the value of orders currently being fulfilled. This lag may point to weakening market sentiment and caution among potential buyers.
Respondents to the survey attributed the hesitation to broader economic and geopolitical uncertainties, with many clients opting to delay purchases. Concerns about tariffs not only affecting the aircraft industry but also impacting buyers’ core businesses have contributed to the pullback. Nearly half of respondents noted a decline in customer interest since March, while 44% reported stable interest and only 10% saw improvement.
Tariffs remain a central concern, with 93% of respondents indicating that new levies would negatively affect demand for new aircraft, and most believing the impact would be significant. The used aircraft market is also under pressure, as 67% of participants expect demand for pre-owned jets to decline, though 27% see potential for moderate growth in that segment.
Despite the overall gloomy outlook, there may be a bright spot on the horizon. Pending legislation in the U.S. Congress could boost the market. Both chambers have approved a budget resolution aimed at extending provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. One key feature of this legislation is the restoration of 100% bonus depreciation for eligible equipment purchases, including business jets. This tax incentive, which has been phasing out since 2023, could be reinstated retroactively, making private aircraft acquisitions significantly more attractive from a financial standpoint.
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